Speaking on CNBC Thursday, ARK Invest’s visionary leader, Cathie Wood, projected bitcoin [BTC]—the globe’s dominant cryptocurrency by market cap—to potentially hit a staggering $1.5 million by 2030, a bullish forecast that nudges her earlier $1 million estimate upward by 50%.
“This SEC nod has ramped up the odds for our bull scenario. It’s an unequivocal green light,” Wood emphasized during the interview. After a decade-long wait, U.S. regulators finally gave the go-ahead Wednesday for spot bitcoin ETFs, marking a pivotal breakthrough as the Securities and Exchange Commission approved pivotal filings from market players aiming to bring these innovative products to life.
Decoding the Bull and Bear Forecasts
Wood further outlined a spectrum of possibilities: a bearish scenario estimating bitcoin to climb to around $258,500, while the baseline forecast sets the price near $682,800. Supporting the previous $1 million outlook, ARK points towards factors like an amplified hashrate, increasing long-term holder reserves, and a surge in addresses maintaining a non-zero balance—all stronger compared to prior dips. The SEC’s stamp of approval on spot ETFs only fortifies this optimistic stance.
Bitcoin ETFs Milestone and Market Movement
ARK Invest ranks among the handful of asset managers sanctioned by the SEC to debut bitcoin ETFs, with trading officially kicking off Thursday. That very day, bitcoin briefly surged above $49,000—the highest since December 2021—before retreating to hover around $46,322, shedding earlier gains but still riding a wave of renewed interest.
Broader Market Sentiments and Comparisons
ARK is far from alone in forecasting a monumental bitcoin rally. Standard Chartered Bank recently chimed in, envisaging bitcoin reaching nearer to $200,000 by the close of 2025. Their outlook draws a parallel between the bitcoin ETF rollout and the advent of the first U.S.–based gold exchange-traded product in November 2004. Intriguingly, gold’s price soared more than fourfold in the subsequent seven years, as gold ETP holdings matured and gained traction.
Key Data Nuggets on Bitcoin’s Market Fundamentals
- Bitcoin’s network hashrate, a critical security and processing metric, has seen steady growth, now surpassing previous peak levels.
- Long-term holders—wallets holding BTC for over a year—have been accumulating steadily, indicating growing investor confidence.
- The number of active BTC addresses maintaining non-zero balances has expanded, signalling increased user engagement and adoption.
- With spot ETFs now live, liquidity and institutional accessibility to bitcoin markets are expected to improve significantly.